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Le refuge ^_^ Index du Forum Le garde manger The Saints kept the No. 1 spot in the latest . Jersey
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Ven Mar 08, 2019 3:08
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NEW YORK (AP) — For the past two months Authentic Tyreek Hill Jersey , the rest of the NFL has tried to slow down Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.And no one has been able to figure out how.The Saints (8-1) rolled to their eighth consecutive victory with a 51-14 pummeling of the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.The Saints kept the No. 1 spot in the latest AP Pro32 poll . They received 10 of 12 first-place votes and 382 points in balloting Tuesday by media members who regularly cover the NFL.“Drew Brees has planted himself firmly in the MVP race. With 21 touchdown passes and just one interception — one! — Brees is playing some of the finest football of his awe-inspiring 18-year career,” Newsday’s Bob Glauber said.The Kansas City Chiefs received the other two first-place votes and remained at No. 2 with 368 points. The Los Angeles Rams were a close third with 366 points.These two 9-1 teams are scheduled to meet on Monday night in a highly anticipated matchup to close Week 11. The game was originally set to be played in Mexico City, but because of concerns about the playing field at Azteca Stadium after recent rain and several big events, it was moved to the Coliseum in Los Angeles.The Pittsburgh Steelers, who have won five in a row, climbed three spots to No. 4. The Steelers (6-2-1) have surged to the top of the AFC North despite the absence of two-time All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell. Bell missed a 4 p.m. deadline on Tuesday to sign his one-year franchise tender and is ineligible to play this season.The Los Angeles Chargers moved up a spot to No. 5. The Chargers (7-2), who have quietly won six in a row, have not garnered much attention despite having one of the top records in the league. Instead, the dominance of both the AFC West rival Chiefs and their neighbors in LA, the Rams, has received most of the headlines.“Shaking off a 1-2 start, the Chargers have remained firmly in KC’s rear-view mirror with a well-balanced attack and impactful rookie safety Derwin James,” said Ira Kaufman of Fox 13 in Tampa Womens Eric Murray Jersey , Florida.The New England Patriots, who were tied for No. 2 last week, dropped to No. 6 after their 34-10 loss at Tennessee on Sunday. The Titans made a major jump, moving five spots to No. 12.The Patriots (7-3) have a bye this week before facing the New York Jets on Nov. 25.The Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1) moved up a spot to No. 7 during their bye week and return to action on Sunday night at NFC North rival Chicago. The Bears (6-3) rounded out the top 10 for the second consecutive week.The Carolina Panthers (6-3), coming off a 31-point loss to the Steelers, dropped three places to No. 8.The Houston Texans (6-3), who have won six in a row after a 0-3 start, are back after their bye and remain No. 9. The Texans on Sunday face NFC East-leading Washington, which climbed five spots to No. 11. Holding the number one seed in the 2018 playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs don’t yet know which opponent they will face when they play their first game at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, January 12 at 3:35 p.m. Arrowhead Time.We know that it will be either the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers or Indianapolis Colts.But which one will it be?There’s no way to know for sure, but as it turns out Womens Kendall Fuller Jersey , one of these opponents is more likely than the others.This has to do not only with which teams are more likely to win their games this weekend, but also with how the NFL playoffs are constructed.At each step of the playoffs, the highest-seeded remaining team always plays at home against the lowest-seeded remaining team.In the AFC wild card games this weekend — where the two top-seeded teams sit out — that means the Houston Texans (third) play at home against the Colts (sixth), and the Ravens (fourth) play at home against the Chargers (fifth).We know the Chiefs will not play the Texans in the divisional round. If the Texans are one of the teams that remain after this weekend, they will have the highest seed (third) of the remaining teams, and would therefore face the New England Patriots (second) instead of the Chiefs (first).By the same logic, if the Colts win against the Texans, they would have the lowest seed of the remaining teams (sixth) and would automatically face the Chiefs (first).What this means is that the sixth seed is almost always more likely to play the first seed in the divisional round, and the third seed is almost always more likely to play the second seed. This is because it depends on the outcome of one game instead of two.This will become more clear as we get down to cases.Elo ratings published by FiveThirtyEight.com say that by their calculations, the Colts have a 44 percent probability to defeat the Texans — which means that there is a 56 percent chance that the winner of the Chargers-Ravens game will be traveling to Arrowhead the following week.The Elo ratings say that the Ravens have a 60 percent chance to win that game, so the Chargers have a 40 percent chance to win.Then all it takes is some simple math to determine to probability that each of these teams will play at Arrowhead the following week:Colts: 44%Ravens: 60% X 56% = 34%Chargers: 40% X 56% = 22%It seems counter-intuitive that the weakest team has the best chance to face the strongest team in the next round, but as we see here, this is precisely why it is so important to obtain the number one seed in the playoffs.Back in the 1990s http://www.thechiefsfootballauthentic.com/mitchell-schwartz-jersey-authentic , Chiefs fans were conditioned to believe that the main advantage of the top seed was to play at home throughout the playoffs — and obviously that’s helpful. But as we see here, even if playoff games were conducted on a neutral field, there is a substantial advantage to having the highest seed in the postseason.If you have the first seed, the most likely outcome is playing the sixth seed in the playoffs.But if you have the second seed, the most likely outcome is playing the third seed.This also means that the probability of both outcomes occurring — that is, the first seed plays the sixth seed, and the second seed plays the third seed — is zero.That’s because both of them are dependent on which team wins a single game: the wild card game between the third seed and the sixth seed.But until that game is decided — which is where we are right now — the probabilities hold.As you know, Elo ratings aren’t the only way to assess the probable outcome of NFL games.I did the same math using three other systems — Sagarin ratings, SRS ratings and Bovada betting odds — here’s how the probabilities line up for the Chiefs:Here’s the same data for the Patriots’ AFC divisional round game in Foxboro:For the New Orleans Saints in the NFC — holding the first seed — here’s the math:Here’s how it works out for the Los Angeles Rams (second) for their NFC divisional round game:As you can see, there’s not a whole lot of difference in how these different systems assess the probabilities for each matchup.But we consistently see that the most likely opponent for the first and second seeded teams are the third and sixth-seeded teams.This will tend to be true in most seasons because point spreads among playoff teams will tend to be low.If we wanted to, we could calculate this all the way through the postseason.But as each round is played, the results of each game affect the probabilities of a win in each successive game.This makes the math more difficult.Thankfully, we don’t have to do that.FiveThirtyEight runs 100 http://www.thechiefsfootballauthentic.com/ron-parker-jersey-authentic ,000 simulated seasons every time that new results of NFL games are available, so they can calculate not only the wide variety of wins, losses and ties that might occur, but also the variety of scores by which those games are decided.For most of the season, these simulations have shown the Chiefs to have a double-digit chance to win the Super Bowl.Currently, FiveThirtyEight calculates the Chiefs have a 63 percent probability to make the conference championship, a 39 percent chance to reach the Super Bowl, and a 20 percent probability to win it.Only the Saints — with a 21 percent chance — have a (slightly) better shot.
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